Kenya’s fiscal and political landscape in early 2026 has been dynamic, with significant implications for the cereal sector. From ongoing debates over government spending to the push-and-pull between the national government and county authorities over agricultural mandates, farmers find themselves in a policy environment that directly affects profitability.
The most pressing issue: Kenya’s chronic underallocation to agriculture. Under the 2026 Budget Policy Statement (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development was allocated KES 75.49 billion — just 2.7% of Kenya’s KES 2.8 trillion national budget. This stands in stark contrast to the continental commitment under the Maputo Declaration, which calls for 10% budget allocation to agriculture. CS Mutahi Kagwe appeared before Parliament on February 19, 2026, urging lawmakers to raise the allocation to at least KES 140 billion (5% of the budget) — a plea that underscores the mismatch between Kenya’s agricultural ambitions and its fiscal reality.
Consider the structural problem: Kenya’s agricultural sector directly contributes 33% of GDP and feeds 53.5 million people, yet accounts for only 2.7% of government spending. With Kenya’s population projected to reach 70.2 million by 2045, current approaches to agricultural investment are unsustainable. The 2026 budget constraints mean delayed investments in irrigation, soil health, mechanisation, and climate-resilient farming — exactly the infrastructure cereal farmers need.
What does this mean for you at the farm gate? Policy uncertainty creates market hesitancy. Traders hold back. Prices stall or dip just when you’ve invested in inputs. The middleman, as always, wins.
CGA’s position is unambiguous: stable, evidence-based agricultural policy is not a favour to farmers. It’s the backbone of national food security. And that requires political will and a budget to match.