Kenya’s fiscal and political landscape in early 2026 has been dynamic, with significant implications for
the cereal sector. From ongoing debates around government spending to the push-and-pull between
national government and county authorities on agricultural mandates, farmers find themselves in a
policy environment that directly impacts profitability.
The most pressing issue: Kenya’s chronic underallocation to agriculture. Under the 2026 Budget
Policy Statement (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development was allocated KES
75.49 billion — just 2.7% of Kenya’s KES 2.8 trillion national budget. This stands in stark contrast to
the continental commitment under the Maputo Declaration, which calls for 10% budget allocation to
agriculture. CS Mutahi Kagwe appeared before Parliament on February 19, 2026, urging lawmakers
to raise the allocation to at least KES 140 billion (5% of the budget) — a plea that underscores the
mismatch between Kenya’s agricultural ambitions and its fiscal reality.
Consider the structural problem: Kenya’s agriculture sector directly contributes 33% of GDP and
feeds 53.5 million people, yet operates on 2.7% of government spending. With Kenya’s population
projected to reach 70.2 million by 2045, current approaches to agricultural investment are
unsustainable. The 2026 budget constraints mean delayed investments in irrigation, soil health,
mechanisation, and climate-resilient farming — exactly the infrastructure cereal farmers need.
What does this mean for you at the farm gate? Policy uncertainty creates market hesitancy. Traders
hold back. Prices stall or dip just when you’ve invested in inputs. The middleman, as always, wins.
CGA’s position is unambiguous: stable, evidence-based agricultural policy is not a favour to farmers.
It’s the backbone of national food security. And that requires political will and a budget to match.